At a recent industry forum, Jiang Bing, Chairman of the State Grid Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd., delivered a compelling speech highlighting how electric vehicles are set to reshape the world once again. Looking ahead to 2022, he outlined four key challenges—what he calls "four gray rhinos"—that could significantly impact the electric vehicle market.
**Gray Rhino One: Electric Vehicles Achieve "Oil-Level Pricing"**
1. Based on the cost breakdown of electric vehicles, the price of power batteries is expected to drop to $100 per kWh, making electric cars as affordable as traditional fuel vehicles.
2. The cost of lithium-ion battery systems is central to achieving this "oil-level pricing."
3. Every time the cumulative shipment of electric vehicles doubles, the cost of solar panels drops by roughly 20%.
4. According to forecasts for lithium battery shipments, prices could fall to 0.6–0.7 yuan per watt-hour, or around $100 per kWh, by 2023, allowing electric vehicles to reach true "oil-level pricing."
**Gray Rhino Two: Solar Power Becomes the Cheapest Energy Source**
1. While solar energy has intermittency and volatility, electric vehicles offer high flexibility and controllability, making them ideal for balancing clean energy supply.
2. Data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association shows that PV module and inverter prices dropped by about 92% between 2007 and 2017.
3. With current trends, solar power costs could be as low as 0.4 yuan per kWh by 2022.
**Gray Rhino Three: Commercialization of Distributed Energy Storage**
1. As energy storage technology advances and battery costs decline, distributed energy storage is expected to become commercially viable around 2022.
2. Electric vehicle batteries are currently the most cost-effective form of energy storage available.
**Gray Rhino Four: Full Deployment of 5G Networks**
1. 5G is the final bottleneck for electric vehicle development, set to drive a major leap from "Nokia" to "Apple" in terms of performance and connectivity.
2. With ultra-fast speeds (over 20 Gbps downlink and 10 Gbps uplink), 1ms latency, and massive connection density, 5G will enable smarter, more connected vehicles.
Jiang also emphasized that future energy systems will be clean, decentralized, and integrated with IoT and big data. Electric vehicles are a fundamental building block of this system. Charging stations act as critical ports, connecting new energy and electric vehicles to a massive market worth trillions.
Looking ahead, by 2030, there could be 100 million electric vehicles on the road, with their onboard batteries providing over 1 billion kilowatts of power—equivalent to 50 Three Gorges Dams. By 2040, this number could double to 200 million vehicles, with battery capacity reaching 2 billion kilowatts—equal to 100 Three Gorges Dams. Considering retired batteries, the total power capacity could increase by another 200 million kilowatts by 2030.
The shift from fuel to electricity in transportation is inevitable. When combined with renewable energy, it has the potential to bring unprecedented benefits to society. This is a large-scale transformation that affects the entire energy landscape and shapes the future. While we're still at the beginning, careful planning and top-level design are essential to guide this transition effectively.
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