At a recent industry forum, Jiang Bing, Chairman of the State Grid Electric Vehicle Service Co., Ltd., delivered a speech highlighting how electric vehicles are set to revolutionize the world once again. Looking ahead to 2022, he outlined four major trends he refers to as "four gray rhinos" that will shape the future of the electric vehicle market.
**Gray Rhino One: Electric Vehicles Reach "Oil-Level Pricing"**
1. Based on cost analysis, the price of power batteries is expected to drop to $100 per kWh, making electric vehicles competitively priced with traditional fuel vehicles.
2. The cost of lithium battery systems is key to achieving this "oil-level pricing."
3. With every doubling of vehicle shipments, solar panel costs have historically dropped by about 20%.
4. Forecasting battery shipment trends, prices are expected to fall to 0.6–0.7 yuan per watt-hour, or around $100 per kWh, by 2023, enabling electric cars to reach true "oil-level pricing."
**Gray Rhino Two: Solar Power Becomes the Cheapest Energy Source**
1. Solar energy is intermittent and variable, but electric vehicles offer high flexibility and control, allowing them to adapt well and support renewable energy integration.
2. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, PV module and inverter prices fell by approximately 92% between 2007 and 2017.
3. With current trends, the cost of solar power could be as low as $0.4 per kWh by 2022.
**Gray Rhino Three: Commercialization of Distributed Energy Storage**
1. As energy storage technology advances, battery costs decline, and electricity markets evolve, distributed energy storage is expected to become commercially viable by 2022.
2. Electric vehicle batteries are among the most cost-effective energy storage solutions available.
**Gray Rhino Four: Completion of 5G Network Deployment**
1. 5G is the final limiting factor for electric vehicle development, and it will enable a transformation from "Nokia" to "Apple" in terms of performance and user experience.
2. With ultra-fast speeds—downlink over 20 Gbps and uplink over 10 Gbps—5G networks offer near-zero latency (1 ms), massive connection density (up to one million per square kilometer), and support for billions of devices.
Jiang emphasized that future energy systems must consider clean energy, decentralization, storage, the Internet of Things, and big data. Electric vehicles are a critical component of this new energy landscape. Charging stations serve as essential ports, connecting electric vehicles and new energy sources to a trillion-dollar market.
He also projected that by 2030, there could be 100 million electric vehicles on the road, with the power of their batteries exceeding 1 billion kilowatts—equivalent to 50 Three Gorges Dams. By 2040, this number could double to 200 million vehicles, with battery power reaching 2 billion kilowatts—equal to 100 Three Gorges Dams. Considering retired batteries, the total power capacity could increase by an additional 200 million kilowatts by 2030.
The shift from fossil fuels to electricity in transportation is inevitable. When combined with renewable energy, this transition could bring unprecedented benefits to society. It's a massive system project that shapes the future, and while we're still at the beginning, forward planning and strong top-level design are essential.
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