Lin Jiliang talks about the first public recognition of the 2016 LED market and the establishment of a factory in India with Jingyuan

In 2015, the entire LED industry fell into a low tide. Lin Jiliang, who was born in Taiwan, was on the peak of his life and was officially appointed as the executive general manager of Mulinsen, which is equivalent to the company's second place. This may be the honor and status that Lin Jiliang deserves, because he is known to be the key driver of Mulinsen's own lighting brand.

In the industry's impression, Mulinsen's rise seems to be based on its fierce low-cost strategy. Because of his expertise in reducing manufacturing costs through mass production, Mulinsen sold LED bulbs for the first time at an ultra-low price of $1 in 2012 and quickly occupied the market. It was called “price butcher” by the industry and officially entered the US in 2014. Taiwan's lighting market. In order to continue to expand its operational strength, Mulinsen officially listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in February 2015, and its growth rate is staggering.

Recently, Lin Jiliang talked about his views on the LED market in 2016.

Falling price continues

Looking forward to 2016, Lin Jiliang believes that the price of LED lighting products will continue to fall. In 2016, the LED price/performance ratio (lm/$) will increase by at least 30%. If the relevant industry can't continue the technology upgrade, it can only go down the price reduction. It depends on each other's own skills.

The price/performance ratio of LED components in the second half of 2015 is about 1,000lm/0.2 USD. The target for 2016 will be 0.1x USD. It is estimated that the threshold of 0.15 USD in the second quarter of 2016 should be no problem. When the cost of LED components reaches 1,000 lm / 0.15 US dollars, the price should be close to the bottom, and there is limited room for future decline.

Compared with the past year, LED components have fallen by 60-70%, and the future decline of about 30% will be significantly reduced. After the price bottoms out, the next step for the industry is to introduce personalized products to enhance the value of the products. If the LED packaging factory is still continuing to take standardized products, the future operation will be very difficult.

In 2016, there should still be a lot of development opportunities. It is estimated that the overall shipment growth will be 30~40%. Under the influence of the average price decline, the output value of the LED lighting market will reach about 10% growth performance. (Remarks: Mr. Lin, the growth rate in 2% in 2015, so fall, will there be a 10% growth rate in 2016?)

LED tube falls more slowly

The average wholesale price of global LED tubes is now from $1.2 to $7.0, which is equivalent to a retail price of $2.4 to $15.0. Among them, the US market price is about 5~10 US dollars, the retail price is equivalent to 15~20 US dollars, the Chinese mainland market is more chaotic, the retail price is about 10~20 yuan, compared with the retail price of 25-40 yuan in the same period of 2014. In 2015, the price dropped sharply, which was related to the cost reduction of the supply of glass tubes. It is expected that the LED tube will still have a certain decline in 2016, but the decline should be relatively flat.

LED filament lamp is more expensive

The LED bulb market should be divided into two markets. Non-full-cycle products are the mainstream price declines in 2015. For example, Philips cuts prices to less than two dollars, and it is estimated that there should be a 30-40% decline in retail prices in 2016. It is understood that Philips' target price of 800lm bulb in 2016 is only 0.8 US dollars, the relevant supply chain is working hard to achieve, the retail price is bound to be lowered, and the service life will be reduced from 25,000 hours to 10,000 hours.

As for the price drop of full-circle LED bulbs will be heavier, the future of full-circle bulbs will be in LED filament bulbs. Although major brands such as Philips and Osram have pushed LED filament bulbs, the retail price is high. At present, the ex-factory price of 800lm LED filament bulb is about 2.5 US dollars. As for the general ex-factory LED bulb, the ex-factory price is about 1.5~1.8 US dollars. It is expected that the ex-factory price of filament bulb will be reduced to 1.0~1.2 USD in 2016, and the terminal market price is about 2~. $3 will be comparable to the price of a full-circle LED bulb.

LED filament light bulb price reduction is mainly a technical solution jointly developed by Jingdian and Mu Linsen. It finds a breakthrough method to make the filament cheaper. The bulb shell is opened by glass, so that the bulb can achieve full-lumen performance and the cost structure can be the cheapest. . Not only will the mold opening time be significantly shortened, but the plastic mold from the past will be shortened to 2 days in about 40 days, and the cost of the past lamp in the hardware mechanism can be saved, and the heat can be dissipated by the helium gas, and no safety problem is used. Will be at least half cheaper.

Initial public recognition and establishment of a factory in India

The joint venture between Mulinsen and Jingyuan in India is 60% owned by Mulinsen and 40% by Jingdian. Currently, the package components are mainly supplied to local winners in India. In addition to the medium and low power package products produced by Mulinsen, Jingdian Other investment companies, such as Haotian and Development Crystal's high-power LED products, can also be sold through this Indian branch.

The current order of the Mulinsen India branch is in good condition, but it is still in its infancy. It is estimated that the Indian government's lighting standard has a market size of 600 million to 700 million SMD LEDs per month, and it is expected to reach a single month in 2 years. From 10 to 2 billion, our goal is to achieve a monthly shipment of 600-700 million units in two to three years.

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