For the bold expectations of the future automotive industry, we assume that the global battery market penetration rate of electric vehicles can reach 50%. It is estimated that the electric vehicle power battery market will reach 320 billion to 400 billion US dollars in 2030, almost the same as the current global semiconductor market revenue. Flat.
In the study of power batteries, we found that the battery and the semiconductor industry have many similarities, that is, they are driven by technology and capacity expansion. We believe that battery technology is a major watershed in the competition for the power battery market, similar to the business model in which the semiconductor industry seeks additional gross margins through technological iterations. In our view, Panasonic is still leading the way in energy density and cost, making it the only supplier of Tesla. LG Chem and Samsung SDI are leading Chinese manufacturers in NMC ternary battery technology and production efficiency, and have access to the Chinese electric vehicle market. BYD and other local manufacturers have been working to compete with the world's major peers in price efficiency by upgrading battery technology.
At the same time, we note that battery manufacturers also need to continue to expand capacity to obtain cost advantages, which is similar to the semiconductor industry. BYD currently has the battery capacity of the world's largest electric car, achieving 15.9 GWh by the end of 2016. But Panasonic and Tesla's super battery factory (GigaFactory) will produce 35 gigawatt hours. In FY 2016-2020, we believe that most of the capacity expansion will come from major electric vehicle manufacturers such as BYD, Panasonic, LG Chem and Samsung SDI.
The electric vehicle battery industry is still very fragmented, with around 15 manufacturers producing more than 1 GWh, similar to the memory competition in the early part of this century. After 15 years of industry consolidation, only three leading players in the memory industry still exist: Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron, which have accounted for more than 77% of the global memory market, while Samsung Electronics has a market share of 36%. first place. We believe that in the 15 years that electric vehicle penetration has increased from the current 1% to 50% in 2030, similar industry consolidation may also occur in the electric vehicle battery industry. We believe that LG Chem and Samsung SDI will be a little ahead of technology and customer base and may become the next Samsung Electronics. We will wait and see if BYD can seize the Chinese government's policy to support cornering overtaking.
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