Focus of attention: LED lighting investment perspective for the next two years

LED lighting instead of traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting will repeat the replacement process of the LED-to-fluorescent lamp (CCFL) that occurs in the TV backlight field. It can be seen that LED backlight backlighting has a rapid decline in the rate of LED backlight backlighting. Rising time period.

As commercial and industrial companies are more sensitive to the cost of electricity, government-to-business LED lighting is replacing traditional fluorescent and incandescent lighting. It will repeat the replacement process of LED-to-fluorescent (CCFL) lamps in the field of TV backlighting. The fastest decline in the period is the rapid rise of LED backlight penetration. Due to the fact that commercial and industrial companies are more sensitive to the cost of electricity charges, and the government has increasingly stricter requirements for energy saving and emission reduction of enterprises, commercial and industrial fields are more active in the use of energy-saving lighting products.

In the rapid decline in the price difference between LED lighting products and traditional lighting products, the penetration rate of LED lighting will rise rapidly. In the LED industry there is a law of Haitz proposed by Agilent's Roland Haitz, which is considered to be the Moore's Law of the LED industry.

Since the commercialization of LEDs, the cost per lumen ($/lm) has dropped by about 20% per year, and from the data in recent years, the increase in brightness and the decrease in cost have accelerated. According to the forecast of the US Department of Energy, the lumen cost of white LED packages will drop from 25$/klm in 2009 to 2$/klm in 2015, and the average annual cost will drop by more than 30%, while the average annual cost between 2010 and 2012 The decline is close to 40%. We believe that 2011-2012 will be the fastest time between the decline of LED and traditional lighting, LED lighting penetration will have a leaps and bounds during this period.

According to our calculations, LED lighting costs will be reduced to twice that of fluorescent lamps around $/lm in 2012. If the LED's lifetime relative to fluorescent lamps is about 2.5 times, the LED lighting will be around 2012. The total cost of lead leads to fluorescent lighting. Therefore, we believe that the large-scale substitution of LED lighting will start in late 2011 and early 2012, and 2011-2012 will be an important investment point for the LED lighting industry.

This process will also be repeated for LED light source replacement. The replacement of LED lighting products will first take place in the commercial and industrial fields. After being well-exemplified, it will gradually spread to home lighting. Currently, traditional lighting includes fluorescent lamps, incandescent lamps, halogen lamps, and HID, each accounting for 36%, 23%, 16%, and 13% of general lighting revenue. With incandescent lamps banned in various countries, fluorescent lamps replace incandescent lamps, and LEDs. Lamp replacements for incandescent and fluorescent lamps will be synchronized.

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