IT, PV and ship "Sanxiong" encountered resistance in Jiangsu?

Among the export product groups of Jiangsu, IT, PV and ship are the new generation of “three males” because one IT product accounts for one-third of the province’s exports, while ship-based transportation equipment and photovoltaic products account for the export market. More than 10%. However, these three products that have been singing all the way in the international market over the years have also ushered in the cold season this winter. In October, exports of all three products showed a year-on-year decline.

The international market is changing and the prospect of exporting "three males" is complicated and confusing. What kind of enlightenment can Jiangsu's foreign trade obtain? Where does Jiangsu's exports ask?

"Scenery" is difficult to "the photovoltaic industry is currently facing severe challenges." Gao Jifan, chairman and chief executive officer of Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd., said that the price of photovoltaic products in the international market has experienced a panic decline, with a general decline of 30-40%. According to statistics from Nanjing Customs, the export of solar cells at the port of Jiangsu continued to decline. After exceeding 10 million for the first time in July, the volume of exports began to shrink sharply in August, and dropped to 6.016 million in the month of October, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. , a decrease of 16% from the previous quarter. About half of the 30 photovoltaic companies in Wuxi experienced negative growth.

IT products and ship exports are also sluggish. The import and export of IT products in Suzhou amounted to US$117.6 billion, which was an increase of 12.6 percentage points lower than the average increase in the city. Among them, notebook computers exported US$30.534 billion, a decrease of 4.9%. As a leading global panel company, Ye Junzheng, the manager of AU Optronics (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., said that since March, the growth rate of LCD TVs has been lagging far behind that of the domestic market, and flat panel export prices have fallen.

In October, the province’s ship exports first showed negative growth since February. Wang Dong, deputy general manager of Jiangsu Yangtze River Shipbuilding Group Co., Ltd., said that since the ship market fell sharply in 2009, new orders have been difficult to reach. By the end of October, shipyards' orders in hand were generally 25% lower than the beginning of the year, and the prices have fallen sharply. Bulk carriers, The sales price of general cargo ships has fallen below the cost price.

"Reversal" traces the three pillar products of the source to meet resistance at the same time in the international market, both common and individual factors.

The deterioration of the European debt crisis, the weak recovery of the US economy, the weakening of external demand caused by the earthquake in Japan, and the continued high exchange rate of the renminbi are common drivers. Wang Dong said that the reduced demand in the international market led to a continuous downturn in the shipping market, with low sea freight and low investment returns. For example, for a 170,000-ton bulk carrier, the maximum rent can reach more than 200,000 US dollars per day, but it has recently dropped to more than 4,000 US dollars, and even the number of shipping employees is insufficient. Therefore, the demand for ships has been greatly reduced.

According to industry insiders, another important factor in reversing the export situation is the rapid expansion of domestic production capacity.

Shi Zhengrong, Chairman and CEO of Wuxi Suntech, said, “China's solar photovoltaic industry mainly relies on the international market. In the past, it was subsidized by foreign governments. Now that there is no market, it still continues to set up factories. There are 10 GW equipment in the country that are not out of the box. The risk is obvious."

“In 2001, the country’s annual photovoltaic capacity exceeded 200 megawatts, and by 2011, it will reach 17 GW, an increase of 80 times in 10 years.” Gao Jifan estimates that by 2015, the global photovoltaic demand will be around 50GW, and now the production capacity has reached five. Sixty GW. In other words, the current production capacity will be able to meet the global demand in 2015.

Photovoltaic production capacity is seriously oversupply, and the LCD panel oversupply. Ye Junzheng said that since 2010, the global LCD panel has been oversupply and prices have fallen. In the third quarter of this year, the supply of panel is larger than that of 17%-19%, and the major panel makers in the world are losing money.

In addition, floods in Thailand have also brought impacts to some IT companies in our province. According to statistics from Suzhou City, the floods caused hard drives to fail and products could not be exported. The loss was more than RMB 4 billion a month.

There are also emerging product impacts, production capacity shifts and other factors. Ipad and other emerging products "spoiled", the rapid expansion of tablet computers significantly squeezed out of the market share of notebook computers. At the same time, the adjustment of the layout of multinational companies, IT production capacity quickly transferred to Chongqing and other central and western regions, by 2012, Chongqing notebook computer output will account for 1/3 of the world.

Finding "Machine" in "Crisis"

Under the circumstances of a weak market and resistance to exports, it is of utmost importance to rationally analyze and judge domestic and international trends and strengthen confidence. Last month, the head of a shipyard in our province visited several major shipbuilding countries in Europe and came to the conclusion that the government is in debt crisis, but many shipowners are not bad money. On the contrary, they are very interested in placing orders when the ship price is low. He said that by convention, 70% of the foreign-funded vessel’s funds are on bank loans, and 30% of shipowners are at their own risk. Now that European banks are undercapitalized, we need Chinese banks to provide financing support to these European shipowners.

PV companies in our province also have confidence in the international market. Shi Zhengrong said that from the second quarter onwards, the agglomeration effect of solar photovoltaics began to appear. The top six global companies accounted for 26% of the market share last year and this year it has increased to 55%. As a leading enterprise, it is necessary to use the low tide of the industry to improve its strengths. The government should continue to provide policy support so that leading companies can play a leading and agglomerating role.

“In the past, there was an advantage in the photovoltaic industry's capacity, and the industry advantage in the next five years was in branding and technology.” Gao Jifan said that the advantages of technology, brand, talents, and other advantages of several photovoltaic leading enterprises in Jiangsu are without doubt leading the world and must be built in the future. Global R & D production base.

Photovoltaic companies in our province generally believe that expanding domestic applications is one of the ways to change the passive status of photovoltaic solar energy exports. Gao Jifan said that the scale of photovoltaic solar power generation in Germany is 6GW, of which 80% is rooftop power generation, and its illumination time is still far inferior to ours. Should make full use of coastal non-agricultural land, as well as factories, warehouses, docks, roofs and other resources, build solar photovoltaic power stations, and expand the application of solar photovoltaics.

Relying on technological innovation and building a brand to meet the challenges, “Sanxiong” enterprises are actively practicing. This year, Suzhou Samsung Electronics’ 12 million notebook orders are expected to increase to 16 million next year. Company sources said that because of branding and innovation, new US marketers brought new orders.

AU Optronics (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. has actively developed high-end smartphones and portable player display screens and won numerous orders from Lenovo, ZTE, Huawei, Nokia, etc. The unit price of shipments has increased significantly. At the same time, thanks to the design and development of a tablet PC for Lenovo and the supply of exclusive display touch screen modules, the sales volume has increased from 5 million to more than 8 million.