Bob Steele from Strategies Unlimited gave a presentation to attendees at the Strategies in Light (SIL) 2010 conference and convention conventions. After a year of market ups and downs, 2009 achieved a full year net profit growth. 5%, the high-brightness LED market is entering a new period of growth. Applications based on LCD backlights and LED lighting are expected to drive the LED market to achieve 50% growth in 2010. Since 11 years ago, Steele has planned every SIL meeting and has made key reports and market forecasts for each SIL meeting. It has been tracking and reporting the development of the LED market for many years. He retired on March 31 this year, but will continue to work as a contract consultant for PennWell, working on several projects at the SIL conference.
This year's SIL is the 11th session of the annual series. It is held in Santa Clara, California, USA. The high-brightness LED market and LED lighting are the two themes. The lighting theme was opened by a review of the market trend of semiconductor solid-state lighting (SSL) that was previously done by Vrinda Bhandarkar of Strategies Unlimited. This year, a new semiconductor solid-state lighting investor forum was added, during which 12 companies reported their respective technologies to venture capitalists and other potential investors. The package-related agenda includes four half-day workshops and two half-day short courses (Tutorial), which brings together more than 90 exhibitors and nearly 3,000 registered visitors. Another highlight of the event was the announcement of the results of the Next Generation Luminaires competition.
LED market cycle
Jed Dorsheimer, senior asset analyst from Canaccord Adams, discussed the cycle of the LED market. The first cycle began in the first few years of the century, driven primarily by mobile handheld devices , which were used to illuminate the keyboard and then as a backlight for mobile phone color screens. The dramatic increase in LED manufacturing has resulted in overcapacity in 2004-2005. However, during this period, LED performance and price reduction were promoted, which in turn created the second cycle of LED, which is currently used as a LED backlight for medium-sized notebooks and large-size TVs.
Based on the rapid growth of the (flat) TV market, Dorsheimer said that the LED industry will experience significant capacity shortages from this year. By 2012, the LED chip gap will reach 700-100 billion. More than a few hundred MOCVD capacity needs to be invested, and the sapphire substrate should be supplied adequately. Dorsheimer believes that according to the current development trend, the future will lead to 30% LED overcapacity, requiring a “one to two year digestion cycleâ€; capacity will not increase much between 2014 and 2016. History will repeat itself, as the decline in LED prices and performance improvements will help the industry advance to the next cycle, but the driving factor is lighting.
Future LED applications
Two reports boldly look at what innovative LED applications the world will present. For example, Avnet's technical director, Cary Eskow, discussed the use of LEDs in medical and psychophysiological fields. He proposed the potential application of LEDs in medical diagnostic endoscopes. According to his report, by adjusting the color temperature of two- or three-color LEDs, this will improve the ability of doctors to identify different tissues. Eskow also proposes that LEDs can be used to modulate human physiological cycles to treat multiple physiological functions, including sleep and wakefulness. Controlled blue LEDs make people more awake, and work more efficiently without the help of drugs or caffeine...
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